Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $410,334$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460,472.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 127.7)}}\) (asimptote \(460,472.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,632$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-1.02 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,186.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 165.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,186.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,683$ on 2020-09-16

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $303,059$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{398,150.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 167.7)}}\) (asimptote \(398,150.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,248$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,244.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 140.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,244.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,570$ on 2020-09-16

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,072$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,160.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,160.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(80.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,239.1}{1 + 10^{-0.424 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,239.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,799$ on 2020-09-16

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,196$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(5.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,148.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(89,148.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $805$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{901.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(901.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,028$ on 2020-09-16

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $170,465$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{976,646.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 272.3)}}\) (asimptote \(976,646.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,165$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(78.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,081$ on 2020-09-16

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,999$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(6.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,808.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,808.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $571$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{531.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 72.5)}}\) (asimptote \(531.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,241$ on 2020-09-16

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,484$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,047.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.4)}}\) (asimptote \(61,047.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 118.7)}}\) (asimptote \(210.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,824$ on 2020-09-16

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $327,551$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{327,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(327,483.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,369$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(316 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,471.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,471.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,178$ on 2020-09-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Vietnam recovered 81%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 78%
Azerbaijan recovered 78%
Afghanistan recovered 76%
Saudi Arabia recovered 73%
Korea, South recovered 64%
Japan recovered 57%
Maldives recovered 46%
Bangladesh recovered 22%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,253$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.08 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,051.6}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(85,051.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,736$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,688.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,688.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $362$ on 2020-09-16

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,514$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.98 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,900.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,900.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $532$ on 2020-09-16

Vietnam⮸

Population $97,338,579$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-08-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(17.6 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 7.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92$ on 2020-09-16

Azerbaijan⮸

Population $10,139,177$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,658$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,316.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 115.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,316.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $569$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(43.8 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{575.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 107.2)}}\) (asimptote \(575.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,940$ on 2020-09-16