Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $410,334$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460,472.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 127.7)}}\) (asimptote \(460,472.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,632$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(-1.02 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,186.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 165.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,186.7\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,683$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $303,059$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{398,150.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 167.7)}}\) (asimptote \(398,150.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,248$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,244.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 140.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,244.0\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,570$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,072$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,160.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,160.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(80.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,239.1}{1 + 10^{-0.424 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,239.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,799$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,196$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(5.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,148.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(89,148.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $805$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{901.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(901.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,028$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $170,465$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{976,646.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 272.3)}}\) (asimptote \(976,646.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,165$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(78.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,081$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,999$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(6.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,808.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,808.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $571$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{531.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 72.5)}}\) (asimptote \(531.9\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,241$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,484$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(3.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,047.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.4)}}\) (asimptote \(61,047.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $216$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 118.7)}}\) (asimptote \(210.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,824$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $327,551$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{327,483.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(327,483.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,369$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(316 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,471.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,471.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,178$ on 2020-09-16